Flagship Project

Mood of Assam 2026

Explore the interactive data and insights compiled from our state-wide, constituency-level public opinion study ahead of the 2026 Assembly Elections.

Electoral Research

Mood of Assam 2026 – Pre-Poll Survey

Conducted as an independent electoral research project for multiple media houses ahead of the Assam Assembly Elections 2026.

Survey Overview

Survey Type

Pre-Poll Electoral Survey

Nature

Independent & Unbiased

Coverage

Assam (State-wide)

Total Sample Size

12,223 Respondents

Total Enumerators

121 Enumerators

Survey Period

17 Jan 2026 – 28 Jan 2026 (11 Days Duration)

Research Methodology

Ground-Level Field Surveys
Constituency-Wise Sampling
Demographic & Community Representation
Structured Questionnaire-Based Interviews
Multi-Region Data Validation Process
Booth & Household-Level Electoral Insights

Areas of Analysis

Voter Mood & Political Sentiment
Leadership Preference
Issue-Based Voting Behaviour
Community Voting Trends
Regional Electoral Shifts
Party-Wise Competitive Assessment
Swing Voter Identification

Project Execution

Executed through a coordinated field research network with trained enumerators, supervised data collection systems, and layered verification protocols to ensure accuracy and neutrality.

Primary Findings

Government Continuity Mood

Does the current political climate favour a continuation of the BJP-led government in 2026? Here is how different demographics align.

Overall Electorate

58.4%Pro-Govt

Pro-Govt58.4%

Anti-Govt26.4%

Swing15.3%

Male Voters

56.9%Pro-Govt

Pro-Govt56.9%

Anti-Govt27.7%

Swing15.4%

Female Voters

59.6%Pro-Govt

Pro-Govt59.6%

Anti-Govt25.3%

Swing15.1%

Hindu Voters

77.7%Pro-Govt

Pro-Govt77.7%

Anti-Govt12.8%

Swing9.5%

Muslim Voters

53.3%Anti-Govt

Pro-Govt24.9%

Anti-Govt53.3%

Swing21.8%

Age 36–45

60.0%Pro-Govt

Pro-Govt60.0%

Anti-Govt25.5%

Swing14.5%

Grassroots Reality

Main Household Problems

The six core grievances shaping voter decisions in 2026 — ranked by prevalence across surveyed households.

Grievance Prevalence Rank

Joblessness

30.44%

Price Hike

27.60%

Roads

13.45%

Health

11.70%

Floods

10.89%

Corruption

5.91%

Voter Priorities

Economic distress elements dominate the electoral discourse. Together, Joblessness and Price Hikes represent the primary concern for over 58% of all surveyed households in Assam.

Infrastructure grievances (Roads, Floods) are localized but carry heavy mobilization weight in rural and riverine constituencies. Floods, specifically in Upper and Lower Assam plains, remain a significant grievance factor.

Electoral Impact: Voters prioritizing joblessness and price rises show higher alignment with swing categories compared to voters focusing on infrastructure developments.

How Issues Break Incumbent Support

Among voters citing each specific issue as their top concern, the share who remain pro-incumbent vs anti-incumbent or undecided.

Joblessness

69%

Pro-Incumbent among concerned

Pro

69%

Anti

17%

Swing

14%

Price Hike

68%

Pro-Incumbent among concerned

Pro

68%

Anti

18%

Swing

14%

Corruption

49%

Pro-Incumbent among concerned

Pro

49%

Anti

29%

Swing

22%

Floods

68%

Pro-Incumbent among concerned

Pro

68%

Anti

18%

Swing

14%

Community Data

Government Continuity by Community

How each community in Assam aligns with the incumbent government — Pro, Anti, and Swing percentages.

Community	Support Distribution	Pro-Govt	Anti-Govt	Swing

Methodology Note

The Silence Factor in Survey Responses

During fieldwork, surveyors identified a 'silence factor' — a fear-induced tendency to give untruthful answers. Using Likert scales, trust indices, and planted control questions, the research team corrected the raw data, revealing a significant adjustment to incumbency numbers.

−5.0% Decrease in Pro-Incumbency after correction

+2.6% Rise in Anti-Incumbency

+2.0% Rise in Swing segment

Psychological Sentiment Index

Positive (≥65)53.1%

Negative (<50)29.0%

Swing (50–64)17.9%

B1/B2/B3 Beneficiary Split

B1 — Direct Beneficiary60.8%

B2 — Indirect Beneficiary58.6%

B3 — Non-Beneficiary42.2%

Leadership Mandate 2026

Who Should Lead Assam?

Voter preference for Chief Minister post — overall and by religious breakdown.

Himanta Biswa Sarma

Current CM · BJP

56.9%

Overall preference for CM post

Hindu: 75.5% Muslim: 22.3% Christian: 45.1%

Gaurav Gogoi

Opposition · INC

22.4%

Overall preference for CM post

Hindu: 5.9% Muslim: 53.7% Karbi: 43.0%

Sarbananda Sonowal

Former CM · BJP/NDA

12.4%

Overall preference for CM post

Tribal: Strong Sonowal Factor noted

HBS Leadership Style

Public Approach Approval

61.3%

Approve of Himanta's leadership style

Hindu: 87.5% Christian: 67.4% Muslim: 48.8%

Opposition Credibility Analysis

Is the Opposition a viable alternative? Public trust breakdown overall and by religion.

Overall Trust

45.4%Distrust

Trust Opp.39.3%

Distrust45.4%

Neutral15.3%

Hindu Trust

65.6%Distrust

Trust Opp.19.2%

Distrust65.6%

Neutral15.2%

Muslim Trust

78.3%Trust

Trust Opp.78.3%

Distrust9.9%

Neutral11.8%

Identity Politics

ST Status Demand & Electoral Impact

Six communities — Ahom, Tea Tribe/Adivasi, Motok, Moran, Koch-Rajbongshi, Chutia — are demanding Scheduled Tribe status. Here is how that shapes voter sentiment.

Would ST fulfilment influence your vote?

MotokYes: 86.3%

MoranYes: 76.2%

Tea Tribe/AdivasiYes: 76.1%

AhomYes: 70.7%

Koch-RajbongshiYes: 63.1%

ChutiaYes: 59.7%

Happy with government's progress on ST status?

Tea Tribe/Adivasi — Yes64.1%

Moran — Yes61.9%

Koch-Rajbongshi — Yes62.5%

Chutia — Yes58.5%

Ahom — Yes57.0%

Motok — Yes51.0%

Ahom Youth ST Resentment

Present resentment: 45%

Absent resentment: 33%

Avoided answer: 22%

Significant youth resentment signals ST status delay could become a key mobilization issue in Ahom-concentrated constituencies.

Tribal Autonomy: 55% of existing ST communities believe granting ST status to these 6 groups will dilute their own cultural/political autonomy.

Land Policy

Is Eviction the Need of the Hour?

Public opinion on state-led eviction drives as a tool for land management in Assam.

70.3%

of Assam's electorate
supports eviction drives
as a state policy tool.

Support70.3%

Oppose16.9%

Neutral12.8%

By Religion

Hindu — Support74.7%

Muslim — Support46.7%

Muslim — Oppose33.3%

Christian — Support68.5%